Predicting the 2024 Oscars

Oscars Sunday is upon us and thus, my final predictions in each of the categories.

Best Picture

I will be shocked if Oppenheimer doesn’t take it. It’s swept this category among many others all season long and I can’t say it’s undeserved. A 3 hour epic that breezes by with intimate performances that never get swallowed by the mammoth production.

Will Win: Oppenheimer
Could Win: It’s Oppie’s to lose, but Anatomy of a Fall would be my chaotic upset.

Best Director

If there was ever a year to give it to Christopher Nolan, it’s now. Many feel that he is long overdue for that illustrious Oscar, and, while that may be true, I think Oppenheimer is an excellent culmination of everything he’s done so far. It feels right that he could finally walk away with an Oscar for this film. If I had to choose a runner up, I’d give it to Glazer. The Zone of Interest is such a directorial feat in its own right, I think it would be a front runner any other year.

Will Win: Christopher Nolan
Could Win: Jonathan Glazer

Best Actress

The closest race we have, but honestly, when is Best Actress not a nail biter. Both won their respective categories at the Globes. Until recently, Emma Stone was cleaning up. Then Gladstone took home the SAG and delivered a wonderful speech honoring the profession of acting. I’m going Gladstone since her pattern follows the exact path of Michelle Yeoh last year. Plus, I think voters will gravitate toward a dramatic performance as opposed to a broader, comedic one. On top of that, Gladstone’s performance is just unforgettable.

Will Win: Lily Gladstone
Could Win: Emma Stone

Best Actor

It’s been going back and forth between two names all season—Paul Giamatti and Cillian Murphy, two performers who, I’d argue, have been long deserving of the coveted award. Both deliver career highs but, after locking the BAFTA and SAG award, I do think this is Cillian Murphy’s win.

Will Win: Cillian Murphy
Could Win: Paul Giamatti

Best Supporting Actor

There’s not a lot to analyze with this category. This is Robert Downey Jr.’s to lose. His turn in Oppenheimer was a pleasant reminder of what a subtle, nuanced actor this man is after a decade in super suits.

Will Win: Robert Downey Jr.
Could Win: Robert Downey Jr.

Best Supporting Actress

There’s no way Da’Vine Joy Randolph is losing this award and it’s gonna be an all-timer. I was lukewarm on The Holdovers but Randolph is a powerhouse and I’m so glad she’s having this moment.

Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph
Could Win: No one else….

Best Original Screenplay

Overall, it’s a really strong batch this year, but one has emerged as a strong contender once the season began. Anatomy of a Fall is tightly written, and utterly gripping and I see that being recognized come Sunday.

Will Win: Anatomy of a Fall
Could Win: The Holdovers

Best Adapted Screenplay

For a while I thought this was going to be a Barbenheimer battle. In recent weeks, another screenplay has emerged as a frontrunner for me. American Fiction is a sharp satire, a moving family drama, and a movie about the art of writing (which I’m sure voters will gravitate toward). It’s a bold, fresh debut and it would be a cool win.

Will Win: American Fiction
Could Win: Oppenheimer

Speed Round

Cinematography: Oppenheimer / RU: Poor Things
Costume Design: Barbie / RU: Poor Things
Editing: Oppenheimer / RU: Anatomy of a Fall
Makeup & Hairstyling: Maestro / RU: Poor Things
Production Design: Barbie / RU: Poor Things
Score: Oppenheimer / RU: Killers of the Flower Moon
Song: What Was I Made For? / RU: I’m Just Ken
Sound: The Zone of Interest / RU: Oppenheimer
Visual Effects: Godzilla Minus One / RU: The Creator
Animated Feature: Across the Spiderverse / RU: The Boy and the Heron
Documentary: 20 Days in Mariupol / RU: Four Daughters
International Feature: The Zone of Interest / RU: Society of the Snow
Documentary Short: The ABC’s of Book Banning / RU: The Last Repair Shop
Live Action Short: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar / RU: Red, White, & Blue
Animated Short: Letter to a Pig / RU: War is Over!